The fall of the regime in Syria confuses the calculations of Russia and Iran and reshapes the regional balances in the Middle East.
History is moving fast in the Middle East, raising the possibility, for well or ill, of
massive changes throughout the region. The collapse of Syria’s Assad-family dictatorship took
everyone by surprise, starting with Bashar al-Assad himself, and certainly including Russia and
Iran. Arab and Western intelligence services missed the regime’s vulnerability, particularly the
weakness and disloyalty of its military and security services.
The brutal dictatorship is gone, but what comes next? Most importantly, Assad’s removal
is yet another massive defeat for Iran’s ruling mullahs. Following Israel’s thrashing of Hezbollah
and its near-total dismemberment of Hamas, this is the third major catastrophe for Tehran’s anti-
Israel “ring-of-fire” strategy. While Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu agreed to a cease fire with
Hezbollah, he has made clear it lasts for only sixty days, ending just after the Joe Biden leaves
office. Hezbollah will be in further dire trouble if its overland supply route through Iraq and
Syria is permanently blocked. There is no cease fire with Hamas, meaning both terrorist proxies
could face further Israeli decimation.
As for Iran itself, the situation could hardly be worse. With three major pillars of its
regional power already fallen or on the way, the ayatollahs are now at great risk both
internationally and domestically. Recrminations and finger-pointing among top leaders of the
Revolutionary Guards and regular Iranian military( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-
news/2024/12/09/iran-armed-forces-at-war-with-themselves-fall-assad-syria/ ) has already spread
widely in the general population( https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/13/world/middleeast/iran-
syria-assad.html ).
Disarray and fragmentation in the senior ranks of authoritarian governments are often the
first signs of regime collapse. Popular discontent in Iran was already extensive due to long-
standing economic decline, the opposition of young people and women generally, ethnic
discontent, and more. If the Revolutionary Guard and regular military leaderships begin to come
apart, the potential for internal armed conflict grows. Assad’s collapse showed that a façade of
strength can mask underlying weakness, with surprisingly swift collapse following.
Externally, Iran’s regime has not been this vulnerable since the 1979 revolution.
Jerusalem has already eliminated Tehran’s Russian-supplied S-300 air-defense systems, seriously
damaged its ballistic-missile capabilities, and destroyed elements of the nuclear-weapons
program( https://www.axios.com/2024/11/15/iran-israel-destroyed-active-nuclear-weapons-
research-facility ). Netanyahu has never had a better opportunity to obliterate all or vast swathes
of the entire nuclear effort. So doing would make Israel, neighboring states, and the entire world
safe from the threat of Iran’s decades-long nuclear-proliferation threat, which has long
contravened the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Israel, with US assistance if requested, should go for the win on the nuclear issue. Not
only would that eliminate Tehran’s threat of a nuclear Holocaust, it would simultaneously strike
yet another domestic political blow against the mullahs. In addition to the tens of billions of
dollars wasted in supporting Iran’s now-decimated terrorist proxies, but the billions spent on
nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles would also be seen as squandered. Iran’s citizens would
be perfectly entitled to conclude that the ayatollahs had never had their best interests at heart, and
that their removal was now fully justified.
Russia is the next biggest loser. Distracted and overburdened by its unprovoked
aggression against Ukraine, now about to enter its third year, the Kremlin lacked the resources to save its puppet in Damascus. Vladimir Putin’s humiliation is reverberating globally, and it will
also have corrosive impact inside Russia, perhaps finally stimulating more-effective opposition
to the ongoing burdens the Ukraine war imposes on Russia’s citizens and economy.
Even more significant losses may be coming. The Kremlin’s main interests in Syria are
its Tartus naval station and its Latakia air base. These are Moscow’s only military facilities
outside the territory of the former Soviet Union. They are vital to Russia’s position in the eastern
Mediterranean. If forced to evacuate these bases, Moscow’s ability to project power beyond the
Black Sea would be dramatically reduced, as would be the threat to NATO across the
Mediterranean. Although there were early indications Russia might to retain the bases, recent
commercial overhead photography indicates it may be preparing to withdraw some or all of its
forces. The situation remains fluid( https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/13/world/syria-
news ).
Without doubt, Turkey, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorists, and the Turkish-
backed Syrian National Army are the big winners so far. However, Syria’s internal situation is
far from settled. American troops remain in northeastern Syria assisting the largely Kurdish
Syrian Defense Forces in the anti-ISIS campaign, and at al-Tanf. The Kurds should not be
abandoned, especially to President Recep Erdogan’s neo-Ottomanist aspirations to expand
Ankara’s control and influence in Arab lands It would be a mistake, at this point, to remove HTS
from Washington’s list of foreign terrorist organizations, although, unwisely, the Biden
administration is reportedly considering doing so( https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/09/us-
debates-lifting-terror-designation-for-main-syrian-rebel-group-00193367 ).
While eliminating Assad is a critical contribution to reducing the Iranian threat, neither
Israel nor neighboring Arab governments nor the United States have any interest in seeing
another terrorist state arise, and this one on the Mediterranean. Delicate diplomacy lies ahead.
In the meantime, Biden was right to bomb ISIS weapons storage depots in eastern Syria to deny
those assets to HTS, and Israel is justified in eliminating the Assad government’s military assets
for the same reason.
Importantly for the region and beyond, urgent efforts are required to locate and secure all
aspects of Assad’s chemical and biological weapons
programs( https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/12/12/syria-chemical-
weapons-search-mustard-sarin/ ). Assaad used chemical weapons against his own people as
recently as 2017 and 2018, so there is no question whether these capabilities exist.
Thus, while there is considerable good news surrounding Assad’s ouster and exile to
Moscow, circumstances in Syria still pose serious threats to peace and security in the Middle
East and globally. This is no time to relax or turn away, especially for the incoming Trump
administration.
This article was first published on December 17th for Independent Arabia.
